Data-driven political analysis focusing on public opinion, New Zealand and climate politicshttps://threelongyears.crawley.nz/https://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/climate-change-public-opinion-why-it-matters/https://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/climate-change-public-opinion-why-it-matters/Most people accept climate change is real and worry about it — so why hasn't the world done more to combat climate change? The answer lies not in denial, but in how rarely climate change makes it to the top of voters' priority lists — a pattern visible across New Zealand and countries around the world.Thu, 12 Mar 2026 22:30:00 GMTSam Crawleyhttps://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/immigration-attitudes-new-zealand-partisanship-salience/https://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/immigration-attitudes-new-zealand-partisanship-salience/With immigration back on the political agenda, I use NZ Election Study data to examine how attitudes differ by party — from NZ First's consistent opposition to ACT's divided base. Immigration has rarely been a top election issue for New Zealand voters, but both ACT and NZ First seem to be betting 2026 will be different. Part 1 of 2 on immigration.Wed, 13 May 2026 23:00:00 GMTSam Crawleyhttps://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/gender-gap-voting-new-zealand/https://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/gender-gap-voting-new-zealand/Women in New Zealand tend to lean left of men — a pattern that has held across most of the past three decades of NZES data. But the gap is small enough to be overwhelmed by other factors. In 2023, National won a higher share of women voters than men, cutting against the usual pattern.Wed, 29 Apr 2026 23:00:00 GMTSam Crawleyhttps://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/climate-polarisation-nz-left-right/https://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/climate-polarisation-nz-left-right/Support for climate action among right-leaning New Zealanders dropped from 52% to 29% between 2020 and 2023. Using NZES data, I look at how the left-right divide on climate is widening — in both policy support and belief in the science itself.Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:00:00 GMTSam Crawleyhttps://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/new-zealand-democracy-vdem/https://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/new-zealand-democracy-vdem/New Zealand ranks 14th globally for liberal democracy — but 37th for deliberative democracy, and falling. Using data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project, I look at how NZ compares to peer countries and trace the sharp drop in deliberation since 2023.Wed, 15 Apr 2026 23:00:00 GMTSam Crawleyhttps://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/immigration-economy-culture/https://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/immigration-economy-culture/Many New Zealanders want immigration reduced — but is that opposition about the economy, or about culture? Drawing on NZES and ISSP data, I find that in 2023 anti-immigration sentiment was lower here than in almost any of 29 countries surveyed — and that the opposition that does exist is rooted in both.Wed, 20 May 2026 23:00:00 GMTSam Crawleyhttps://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/nz-climate-election/https://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/nz-climate-election/Extreme weather keeps putting climate change in the headlines — but will it actually matter to New Zealand voters in 2026? The data suggests probably not.Thu, 12 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMTSam Crawleyhttps://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/treaty-waitangi-partisan-opinion/https://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/treaty-waitangi-partisan-opinion/New Zealand's Treaty of Waitangi debate is increasingly partisan — left and right voters are now 34 points apart. I look at what the data shows and what it means for 2026.Wed, 18 Mar 2026 20:30:00 GMTSam Crawleyhttps://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/nz-election-issues-economy-cost-of-living/https://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/nz-election-issues-economy-cost-of-living/Economy, cost of living, and health dominated voter concerns in 2023. But while National owned the economy, no party owned cost of living — a distinction that could shape the 2026 election.Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTSam Crawleyhttps://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/nz-public-democratic-satisfaction/https://threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/nz-public-democratic-satisfaction/Most New Zealanders are satisfied with how democracy works — around 71% in 2023, and steady for 30 years. I look at NZES and CSES data on where the public sits, and ask whether that might change in 2026.Wed, 03 Jun 2026 23:00:00 GMTSam Crawley