Is there room for a blue-green party? Environmental opinion in New Zealand

· Sam Crawley
nz-politics environment
Twizel Landscape

Bernard Spragg (CC0 1.0)

When the German Green party first came to prominence in the 1980s, their slogan proclaimed: “We are neither left nor right; we are in front”. Yet ever since, it’s been clear that left-leaning parties tend to care more about environmental issues than right-leaning parties do. Almost every Green party around the world — including the Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand — is aligned well to the left of the political spectrum.

That said, there are clearly some on the right who care deeply about the environment. The current Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment Simon Upton, for example, is a former National party minister. There have, at times, been calls for a centrist or even right-leaning “blue-green” environmental party in NZ to serve this constituency. Previous attempts to launch such a party have, however, been abject failures.1

Today, I use New Zealand Election Study (NZES) data to investigate how much Kiwis support action on the environment, and how this splits along left–right and partisan lines. I also show how NZ compares globally.

Support for environmental action is strong

The two measures of environmental opinion I use in this analysis are people’s support for government spending on the environment (do they want more or less), and people’s opinion on whether protecting the environment is more important than improving the economy.

Overall, the NZ public supports action on the environment. Only a small percentage of people want less spending on the environment, and — since 2017 — a majority want more.2

Line chart titled "Support for more environment spending has increased", showing the percentage of New Zealanders wanting more versus less government spending on the environment, NZES 1996–2023. The "more" line stays well above the "less" line throughout, rising from 40% in 1996 to a peak of 63% in 2017, then easing to 59% in 2020 and 51% in 2023. The "less" line stays low, between 4% and 12%, ending at 12% in 2023. The question was not asked in 2008.

Figure 1: Support for government spending on the environment, NZES 1996–2023

We see a similar pattern when asking people whether they prefer environmental protection over economic development. The exception was 2008 when the Global Financial Crisis was hitting the world, and economic concerns temporarily pushed out the environment.3

Line chart titled "New Zealanders usually favour the environment over the economy", showing the percentage favouring the environment versus the economy (excluding neutral responses), NZES 1996–2023. The environment line is above the economy line in every year except 2008, when economic concerns pushed the economy (45%) above the environment (29%). Otherwise environment support ranges from 37% up to a peak of 61% in 2017, ending at 50% in 2023, while the economy line ends at 28%. The question wording changed in 2014.

Figure 2: Favouring the environment over the economy, NZES 1996–2023

Most of the public supports environmental action, and that support seems to be growing over time. But, like so many other issues, the support is not evenly distributed among the public.

Preferred environmental spending over time

Stacked bar chart titled "Since 2017, most New Zealanders want more environment spending", showing preferred government spending on the environment for each NZES from 1996 to 2023, with categories much more, more, same as now, less and much less. The combined "more" share rises from 40% in 1996 to 63% in 2017, then 59% in 2020 and 52% in 2023, while "same as now" falls from 55% to 37% and the combined "less" share stays at 10% or below until reaching 12% in 2023. The question was not asked in 2008.

Preferred government spending on the environment, NZES 1996–2023
Environment vs. economy preference over time

Stacked bar chart titled "New Zealanders usually favour the environment over the economy", showing responses to whether protecting the environment or encouraging economic development is more important, on a 7-point scale, for each NZES from 1996 to 2023. Combining the pro-environment points, environment support is 42% in 1996, dips to 28% in 2008, peaks at 61% in 2017 and is 49% in 2023; the pro-economy share is 30% in 1996, rises to 45% in 2008, and is 28% in 2023. The question wording changed in 2014.

Protecting the environment vs. encouraging economic development, NZES 1996–2023

The clear left–right divide

When splitting support for more environmental spending by where people position themselves on the left–right political spectrum, we can see that there is a clear divide. In 2023, over 80% of people on the left wanted more environmental spending, while just over 30% on the right wanted more. This situation mirrors the trend seen in support for climate action.

However, the data also shows that in 2017 — at the height of support for environmental spending — close to a majority of right-leaning people wanted more spending. The patterns are very similar when looking at the environment vs economy measure (see supplementary figure).

Line chart titled "Spending on the environment increasingly divides left and right", showing the percentage wanting more government spending on the environment by left–right self-placement, NZES 1996–2023. The left line rises from 57% in 1996 to 84% in 2023. The right line is consistently lowest, near 26% in 1996, climbing to 48% in 2017 before falling to 31% in 2023. The centre line sits between the two, ending at 51% in 2023.

Figure 3: Wanting more environmental spending, by left–right self-placement, NZES 1996–2023
Environment vs. economy preference by left–right position

Line chart titled "The environment-economy trade-off increasingly divides left and right", showing the percentage favouring the environment over the economy by left–right self-placement, NZES 1996–2023. The left line rises from 56% in 1996 to 84% in 2023. The right line is lowest, falling from 36% in 1996 to 19% in 2008 and 22% in 2023. The centre line ends at 54% in 2023. The question wording changed in 2014.

Favouring the environment over the economy, by left–right self-placement, NZES 1996–2023

The divide is also clear when looking at support for spending by party. At no point since 1996 have a majority of ACT and National party voters supported increased environmental spending. The environment has become more important for Labour voters over time, and in recent elections, just under 70% want more spending.

Six-panel line chart titled "Green and Te Pāti Māori voters most back environment spending", showing the percentage wanting more government spending on the environment by party vote, NZES 1996–2023, with separate panels for ACT, National, NZ First, Labour, Te Pāti Māori and Green. In 2023, support was highest among Green (91%) and Te Pāti Māori (87%) voters, followed by Labour (69%), and lowest among ACT (32%), National (31%) and NZ First (30%) voters. No majority of National or ACT voters has wanted more spending in any year.

Figure 4: Wanting more environmental spending, by party vote, NZES 1996–2023
Environment vs. economy preference by party

Six-panel line chart titled "Green and Te Pāti Māori voters most favour the environment", showing the percentage favouring the environment over the economy by party vote, NZES 1996–2023, with separate panels for ACT, National, NZ First, Labour, Te Pāti Māori and Green. In 2023, Green (89%) and Te Pāti Māori (83%) voters were most likely to favour the environment, followed by Labour (66%), while NZ First (38%), ACT (38%) and National (27%) voters were least likely. The question wording changed in 2014.

Favouring the environment over the economy, by party vote, NZES 1996–2023

There are similar patterns when splitting people by their support for government measures to reduce income differences. People who favour reductions in income inequality tend also to support higher spending on the environment, which suggests there is a relationship between people’s economic worldview and support for environmental action.

Grouped stacked bar chart titled "Those favouring redistribution want more environment spending", showing preferred government spending on the environment by attitude to income redistribution (favour, neither, oppose) for each NZES from 2011 to 2023. In every year, people who favour redistribution are the most likely to want more spending: in 2023 the combined "more" share is 65% among those favouring redistribution, compared with 35% among both those neither for nor against and those opposed — the latter also the most likely to want less.

Figure 5: Preferred environmental spending, by attitude to income redistribution, NZES 2011–2023
Environment vs. economy preference by support for reducing income differences

Grouped stacked bar chart titled "Redistribution attitudes shape the environment-economy trade-off", showing environment versus economy preference on a 7-point scale by attitude to income redistribution (favour, neither, oppose) for each NZES from 2014 to 2023. People who favour redistribution lean most strongly pro-environment: in 2023, 65% of those favouring redistribution favour the environment versus 19% the economy, while among those opposed the split is closer, with 32% pro-environment and 42% pro-economy.

Environment vs. economy preference, by attitude to income redistribution, NZES 2014–2023

Comparing NZ to the world

How does public support for environmental action in NZ compare to the rest of the world? I used International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) 2020 data for the comparative analyses below. NZ has among the highest levels of concern about the environment of the countries included in ISSP, with an average of 4.1, where 5 is “very concerned”.

Dot plot titled "New Zealand ranks high for environmental concern", showing mean environmental concern (1 = not at all, 5 = very concerned) by country, ISSP 2020. New Zealand, highlighted, has a mean of 4.1, the third highest of the 28 countries, behind only Spain (4.3) and Slovenia (4.2). The lowest are Slovakia (3.3), Thailand (3.3) and South Africa (3.4).

Figure 6: Mean environmental concern by country, ISSP 2020

For policy support, however, NZ is closer to the middle of the pack. When asked about willingness to pay higher prices or taxes to address environmental issues, the average in NZ is 2.9 and 2.7 respectively, lower than countries including Denmark, the United States and Australia.

Dot plot titled "New Zealand is mid-pack on paying for the environment", showing each country's mean willingness to pay higher prices and higher taxes to protect the environment (1 = very unwilling, 5 = very willing), ISSP 2020. New Zealand, highlighted, sits near the middle with a mean of 2.9 for higher prices and 2.7 for higher taxes, below countries such as India (3.8 for higher prices), Switzerland (3.4) and the United States (3.1). Willingness to pay higher taxes is lower than willingness to pay higher prices in every country.

Figure 7: Mean willingness to pay higher prices or taxes for the environment, by country, ISSP 2020

A (narrow) space for a blue-green party?

It’s clear from this data that the environment remains primarily the domain of the political left. Support for increased environmental spending is over 90% among Green voters, and very strong among Te Pāti Māori and Labour voters. In contrast, only minorities of people who support the right-leaning parties want more money spent on the environment.

The results could still imply there is some space for a small blue-green party to occupy. Even at the lowest points of support for environmental action, around a quarter of right-leaning voters have wanted more money spent on the environment — a constituency that’s small but not negligible. In theory, a party that consolidated enough of those voters could cross the 5% threshold and enter parliament.

That said, an alternative reading of the results is that a right-leaning environmental party faces trade-offs that are hard to reconcile. As the ISSP data shows, the NZ public is broadly very concerned about the environment. But when asked about the costs of doing something, people are less supportive of action. Not every environmental intervention requires an economic trade-off, but many do — the current debate over selling conservation land is a prime example.

A blue-green party is therefore, in my view, likely to struggle to consolidate support, no matter how well-run the party may be. It would face challenges equivalent to a left-wing party that did not care much about the environment, and would be unlikely to ever enter parliament. For the foreseeable future, at least, advancement of environmental policy is likely to come primarily from the left.

Footnotes

  1. The Opportunities Party occupies some of the “blue-green” space. They have generally strong environmental policies, and some centrist economic and fiscal policies. However, they also have many left-leaning economic policies (such as universal basic income), and therefore are hard to place on a traditional political spectrum. The environment is also not their main focus, so I don’t consider them a blue-green party (whereas Sustainable New Zealand clearly was). ↩

  2. This question was not asked in the 2008 NZES. ↩

  3. The wording of this question changed in 2014. Previously it had asked if we should prioritise the environment over safeguarding our income. This is, arguably, a harder choice so may have resulted in lower levels of environmental support relative to the later question (which asks about encouraging economic development). ↩

The analysis code for this post is available on Codeberg.

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