I write about New Zealand and climate politics — not who's winning, but why. Posts here draw on hard data and academic research to examine public opinion, electoral behaviour, and the politics of climate change.
Many New Zealanders want immigration reduced — but is that opposition about the economy, or about culture? Drawing on NZES and ISSP data, I find that in 2023 anti-immigration sentiment was lower here than in almost any of 29 countries surveyed — and that the opposition that does exist is rooted in both.
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With immigration back on the political agenda, I use NZ Election Study data to examine how attitudes differ by party — from NZ First's consistent opposition to ACT's divided base. Immigration has rarely been a top election issue for New Zealand voters, but both ACT and NZ First seem to be betting 2026 will be different. Part 1 of 2 on immigration.
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Women in New Zealand tend to lean left of men — a pattern that has held across most of the past three decades of NZES data. But the gap is small enough to be overwhelmed by other factors. In 2023, National won a higher share of women voters than men, cutting against the usual pattern.
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New Zealand ranks 14th globally for liberal democracy — but 37th for deliberative democracy, and falling. Using data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project, I look at how NZ compares to peer countries and trace the sharp drop in deliberation since 2023.
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