9 posts
Most New Zealanders are satisfied with how democracy works — around 71% in 2023, and steady for 30 years. I look at NZES and CSES data on where the public sits, and ask whether that might change in 2026.
Many New Zealanders want immigration reduced — but is that opposition about the economy, or about culture? Drawing on NZES and ISSP data, I find that in 2023 anti-immigration sentiment was lower here than in almost any of 29 countries surveyed — and that the opposition that does exist is rooted in both.
With immigration back on the political agenda, I use NZ Election Study data to examine how attitudes differ by party — from NZ First's consistent opposition to ACT's divided base. Immigration has rarely been a top election issue for New Zealand voters, but both ACT and NZ First seem to be betting 2026 will be different. Part 1 of 2 on immigration.
Women in New Zealand tend to lean left of men — a pattern that has held across most of the past three decades of NZES data. But the gap is small enough to be overwhelmed by other factors. In 2023, National won a higher share of women voters than men, cutting against the usual pattern.
New Zealand ranks 14th globally for liberal democracy — but 37th for deliberative democracy, and falling. Using data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project, I look at how NZ compares to peer countries and trace the sharp drop in deliberation since 2023.
Economy, cost of living, and health dominated voter concerns in 2023. But while National owned the economy, no party owned cost of living — a distinction that could shape the 2026 election.
Support for climate action among right-leaning New Zealanders dropped from 52% to 29% between 2020 and 2023. Using NZES data, I look at how the left-right divide on climate is widening — in both policy support and belief in the science itself.
New Zealand's Treaty of Waitangi debate is increasingly partisan — left and right voters are now 34 points apart. I look at what the data shows and what it means for 2026.
Extreme weather keeps putting climate change in the headlines — but will it actually matter to New Zealand voters in 2026? The data suggests probably not.