New Zealand's immigration attitudes: an international outlier

· Sam Crawley
nz-politics immigration
New Zealand Flag

Christoph Strässler (CC BY-SA 2.0)

A significant proportion of the New Zealand population want immigration numbers reduced. But there are a variety of reasons why someone might want to see fewer people entering the country. It could be mainly about economic concerns — the idea that more people in the country will mean fewer jobs and houses to go around. Or it could be on cultural grounds — the belief that too many immigrants might change the culture of the country, especially if they come from very different societies.

The reasons why people oppose immigration matter. Economic concerns are probably more easily allayed — if the economy grows, and the cost of living is not a struggle for most people, fears about immigration are likely to subside.

But cultural opposition to immigration tends to be more deep-seated. If people are strongly opposed to immigrants, and if they are particularly opposed to people arriving from certain countries, it creates fertile ground for far-right parties to capitalise on and amplify anti-immigrant sentiment. In some cases, this may lead to xenophobic and racist rhetoric.

In this post, I investigate how much the anti-immigration attitudes that I detailed in my previous post are about the economy or culture. I draw on data from the NZ Election Study (NZES) and the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP), and compare NZ to 28 other countries — finding that anti-immigration sentiment here is lower than in almost all of them.

Economic indicators

The analyses below are based on the same NZES question as last time, which asks people whether they would like the number of immigrants to NZ reduced or increased. Historically, a high proportion (often a majority) of Kiwis have said they would like to see it reduced, although opposition dipped in 2023 after the pandemic.

When we look at responses to that question by income level we see a clear pattern: the higher a person’s household income, the lower their level of opposition to immigration.1 The top two brackets both lean pro-immigration on average, while in the lowest bracket nearly half (46%) want immigration reduced.

Diverging bar chart titled "Higher earners lean more pro-immigration", showing views on NZ immigration levels by household income bracket (NZES 2023). Response categories are: Reduced a lot, Reduced a little, About the same, Increased a little, Increased a lot. The topmost group, $183,570 and over, shows only 18% wanting a reduction and 42% wanting an increase — one of only two income groups that lean pro-immigration on average. $123,435–$183,569 leans slightly pro-immigration, with 28% wanting a reduction and 32% an increase. $80,180–$123,434 and $44,521–$80,179 show mild anti-immigration pluralities, while $44,520 or less shows the strongest anti-immigration views, with 46% wanting reduction and 24% an increase. The no income group is an outlier, with 72% wanting immigration to stay about the same.

Figure 1: Views on immigration levels by household income, 2023

We see a similar story when viewing immigration opinions by people’s perceptions of future financial risk. People who think their household income will very likely be substantially reduced over the next 12 months are also the most likely to want immigration reductions. However, a significant proportion (32%) of people in that category want immigration increased, so economic anxiety doesn’t map cleanly onto anti-immigration views.

Overall, these results are consistent with people opposing immigration on economic grounds.

Diverging bar chart titled "Income-worried voters lean more anti-immigration", showing views on NZ immigration levels by perceived likelihood of household income being reduced (NZES 2023). Response categories are: Reduced a lot, Reduced a little, About the same, Increased a little, Increased a lot. Those who say income reduction is "very likely" are most anti-immigration: 26% want immigration reduced a lot and 13% reduced a little (combined 39%), while 32% want an increase. Among those who say "somewhat likely", 38% want reduction and 26% want an increase. Those who say "somewhat unlikely" are roughly split: 32% want reduction and 32% want an increase. Those who say "very unlikely" show 29% wanting reduction, 24% wanting an increase, and 47% wanting about the same.

Figure 2: Views on immigration levels by perceived household income risk, 2023

Cultural indicators

Ideally, to understand how much anti-immigration attitudes relate to culture, we would have measures of acceptance of cultural diversity. Unfortunately, there is no question like this in NZES. However, we can still get useful insights from some other relevant questions.

NZES asks people what traits they consider important for being a “true” New Zealander. As the figure shows, few people think it’s necessary to have grandparents born in NZ to be a true New Zealander, and only a minority (although a substantial one) view being born here as key to NZ identity. The vast majority (76%) think speaking English is very or fairly important.

Stacked bar chart titled "Most New Zealanders say speaking English is key to 'true' NZ identity", showing how important three factors are for being a 'true New Zealander' (NZES 2023, excluding 'don't know'). Response categories from left to right: Not important at all (dark blue), Not very important (light blue), Fairly important (orange), Very important (red). Grandparents born in New Zealand is rated least important: 39% not important at all, 38% not very important, 15% fairly important, and only 8% very important. Born in New Zealand is more split: 24% not important at all, 34% not very important, 22% fairly important, and 20% very important. Can speak English is rated most important: 9% not important at all, 15% not very important, 37% fairly important, and 39% very important — 76% rate it important.

Figure 3: Importance of factors for being a 'true New Zealander', 2023

The answers to these questions suggest there are substantial levels of “nativism” among the NZ public, given that 42% of people think being born in NZ is important to be considered a “true” New Zealander. This aligns with the results of a recent Helen Clark Foundation survey on social cohesion, which found 25% of Kiwis held a very or somewhat negative view of immigrants from India, and 23% from China — compared to just 5% from Australia and 6% from the UK. In other words, some anti-immigration sentiment in NZ is clearly cultural.2

Views on immigration levels by parents' country of birth

Diverging bar chart titled "Children of immigrants are more open to immigration", showing views on NZ immigration levels by whether parents were born overseas (NZES 2023). Response categories are: Reduced a lot, Reduced a little, About the same, Increased a little, Increased a lot. Those with both parents born overseas are the most pro-immigration: 30% want immigration reduced (13% a lot, 17% a little) and 35% want it increased (22% a little, 13% a lot). Those with one parent born overseas show 32% wanting reduction and 21% wanting an increase, with 47% wanting about the same. Those with neither parent born overseas are the most anti-immigration: 37% want reduction (17% a lot, 20% a little) and 26% want an increase.

Views on immigration levels by parents' country of birth, 2023

Comparing Aotearoa to the world

How do Kiwis’ immigration attitudes compare to the rest of the world? I analysed ISSP data and found that New Zealand has the lowest anti-immigrant sentiment of all the countries included in the study. Countries where the radical right has been strong — such as Hungary, the Netherlands and Austria — have among the highest.

Dot plot titled "New Zealanders most open to immigration globally", ranking 29 countries by mean response to 'The number of immigrants should be...' on a 1–5 scale where 1 means increased a lot, 3 means remain the same, and 5 means reduced a lot (ISSP 2023 National Identity IV). A dashed line marks 3. New Zealand (highlighted in blue) scores 2.87 — the lowest of the 29 countries. It is one of four below the midpoint of 3 (with Thailand 2.88, Lithuania 2.89, and Taiwan 2.94), meaning that in those countries the average respondent leans toward wanting more immigration. At the other extreme, Russia scores 4.17, followed by Hungary (4.09), Greece (4.06), and the Netherlands (4.03). Australia scores 3.49, Canada 3.48, and the United States 3.51.

Figure 4: Mean views on immigration levels across 29 countries, 2023

When asked about whether immigration is likely to increase crime, NZ again scores lowest. Kiwis were also among the least likely to think that immigration would lead to fewer jobs for locals.3

Connected dot plot titled "New Zealanders less likely to blame immigrants for crime or job losses", showing mean agreement (1–5 scale, 1 = disagree strongly, 5 = agree strongly) that immigration increases crime (blue dots) or takes jobs from locals (orange dots), for 29 countries (ISSP 2023). Countries at the top show the strongest agreement with both claims: South Africa (crime 3.96, jobs 3.79), Russia (crime 4.02, jobs 3.60), and India (crime 3.67, jobs 3.76). In most countries, concern about crime is higher than concern about job displacement, but in India and South Africa the two items are close. Germany, Sweden, and Denmark show relatively low job-displacement concern (around 2.05–2.10) despite more moderate crime scores. New Zealand scores lowest on the crime item (2.21) and among the lowest on job displacement (2.36), both well below the neutral midpoint of 3. Canada and Australia also score near the bottom.

Figure 5: Mean agreement that immigration increases crime or displaces local workers, across 29 countries, 2023
Immigration, crime and terrorism risk: World Values Survey

Dot plot titled "New Zealanders least likely to believe immigration increases crime", showing the percentage agreeing that immigration increases crime (blue dots) or increases terrorism risk (orange dots) for 17 countries (World Values Survey Wave 7, 2017–2022). Countries are ranked from highest to lowest. Russia has the highest rates: 70% for crime and 72% for terrorism. Greece (67% crime, 64% terrorism), Germany (61% crime, 65% terrorism) and Netherlands (60% crime, 49% terrorism) also score high. South Korea is notable for higher crime concern (53%) than terrorism risk (35%). Australia shows 35% for crime and 42% for terrorism. The United States shows 31% for crime and 42% for terrorism. New Zealand has the lowest agreement that immigration increases crime (13%) and a relatively low terrorism risk figure (24%). Canada is just above New Zealand on the crime measure (23%), and slightly below it on terrorism risk (22% versus New Zealand's 24%).

% agreeing that immigration increases crime or terrorism risk, across 17 selected countries, 2017–2022

Why is New Zealand different?

New Zealand stands out from comparable countries when it comes to immigration attitudes. We have lower levels of opposition to immigration than almost any country in the world.

A lot of the opposition to immigration that does exist in NZ is based on economic concerns. The cost of living is hitting many Kiwis hard, and people may feel that it will only get harder if there are more immigrants arriving (which may or may not be true). That said, it’s clear that there is cultural opposition to immigration too.

The New Zealand public’s attitudes towards immigration probably differ from other countries — in part — due to our geographic isolation (meaning irregular immigration is very rare), our long history of immigration, and biculturalism. Moreover, a high proportion of immigrants to NZ are from countries such as the UK, Australia and South Africa — countries with very similar cultures, meaning the scope for cultural opposition to immigration is reduced.

A couple of things complicate this picture. As I noted last time, opposition to immigration in NZ was very low in 2023 compared with previous years. This is probably related to the pandemic, which may have affected other countries differently. The period immediately following the pandemic could therefore be unusual for NZ in terms of anti-immigration sentiment.

Moreover, there is clear evidence that some opposition to immigration here is about culture and — as the Helen Clark Foundation findings suggest — race. We’ve seen anti-immigration sentiment spike up sharply in other countries, and as lead researcher on the Helen Clark Foundation report, Shamubeel Eaqub, put it, “our views on immigration are hardening very fast”. Immigration may rarely have been a major election issue in NZ, but if attitudes are hardening as fast as Eaqub suggests, 2026 could be different.

Footnotes

  1. The “No income” category typically includes a range of people, including wealthier people who are not working. ↩

  2. I also investigated how anti-immigration sentiment differs depending on a person’s immigration background (see supplemental figure). Those with both parents born overseas were clearly the most open to immigration. Those with one or neither parent born overseas both leaned mildly anti-immigration to a similar degree, though the neither-parent group was slightly more opposed. ↩

  3. I have included a supplemental figure with some similar questions from World Values Survey. These also show NZ has among the least anti-immigration. This survey was conducted between mid-2019 and early 2020 in NZ, and so somewhat reduces concerns that the NZES/ISSP surveys were done at an unusual time for immigration attitudes in NZ (i.e. after the pandemic). Among all 66 countries in WVS7, NZ scores lowest on linking crime to immigration, and 10th lowest on terrorism and immigration. ↩

The analysis code for this post is available on Codeberg.

View code on Codeberg →